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The Resource Economic Analysis and Forecast of China (2015)

Economic Analysis and Forecast of China (2015)

Economic Analysis and Forecast of China (2015)
Economic Analysis and Forecast of China (2015)
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Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China's Development Path Ser
Economic Analysis and Forecast of China (2015)
Economic Analysis and Forecast of China (2015)
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  • Series Preface -- Preface -- New Normal, New Leap -- I -- II -- III -- IV -- V -- Academic Committee of "Economic Analysis and Forecast of China"Chairman: Li YangVice-chairman: Liu Shucheng, Lv ZhengMembers: Wang Guogang, Tian Xueyuan, Zhu Ling, Zhang Ping, Zhang Chewei, Zhang Zhuoyuan, Zhang Xiaoshan, Zhang Xiaojing, Li Ping, Li Zhou, Li Xuesong, Yang Shengming, Wang Tongsan, Zhou Shulian, Jin Bei, Yin Jianfeng, Gao peiyong, Huang Qunhui, Cai Fang, Pei Changhong, Pan Jiahua, Wei houkuaiEditorial Board of "Blue Book of China's Economy"Chief Editor: Li YangVice-Chief Editors: -- Editorial Board of "Blue Book of China's Economy" -- Contents -- About the Editors -- Summary -- General Report -- 1 Economic Analysis and Forecast of China-2014 Autumn Report -- Abstract -- 1.1 Current International Economic Environment and Forecast of China's Economy from 2014 to 2015 -- 1.1.1 Analysis of the Current International Economic Environment -- 1.1.2 China's Economic Forecast of Major Indexes from 2014 to 2015 -- 1.2 Promoting a Stable and Balanced Development of Domestic Demand Under the "New Normal" -- 1.2.1 Enhancing Investment in Research and Development, High-End Manufacturing, Modern Services, Ecological and Environmental Protection and Infrastructure and Optimizing Investment Structure -- 1.2.2 Promoting Residents' Reasonable and Justified Housing Demands and Addressing Residents' Demand for Improved Housing -- 1.3 Following a Pro-active Fiscal Policy, Improving Utilization Rates of Financial Funds and Accelerating the Reform of the Financial and Taxation Systems -- 1.3.1 The Pro-active Fiscal Policy Under the "New Normal" Should Focus on Adjusting the Expenditure Structure and Improve the Utilization Rate of Financial Funds -- 1.3.2 Accelerating the Reform of the Financial and Taxation Systems
  • 1.3.3 Enhancing the Local Tax System Construction and Properly Expanding Tax Sources for Local Finance -- 1.4 Implementing Directional Easing and Prudent Monetary Policy, Deepening Reform and Alleviating the Problem of "Difficult and Expensive Financing", While Developing the Capital Markets -- 1.4.1 The Prudent Monetary Policy Under the "New Normal" Should Be Directional, in Order to Ease and Focus on Active and Effective Presetting -- 1.4.2 Reasons for "Difficult and Expensive Financing" of the Current Real Economy -- 1.4.3 Deepening the Reform in Order to Alleviate the Problem of "Difficult Financing and Expensive Financing" -- Developing Capital Markets and Promoting the Financial Industry in Order to Serve the Real Economy -- Economic Growth and Industry Development -- 2 Analysis and Policy Suggestions for the Economic Trends at Present and in the Middle and Long Term -- Abstract -- 2.1 Current Economic Development Trend: Heavier Downward Pressure on the Economy -- 2.2 Four Possibilities Exist for the Future Economic Trend -- 2.3 Policy Suggestion: Constructing a New Pattern for China's Economic Growth -- 2.4 New Urbanization and the Problem of the Significant Slow-Down of the Economic Growth Rate -- References -- 3 Analysis of the Macroeconomic Situation in 2014 and Prospects in 2015 -- Abstract -- 3.1 Overall Stability in the National Economic Operation -- 3.1.1 Stable Economic Growth, Concurrence of Slowing-Down and Increasing Demands -- 3.1.2 Stable Employment and Commodity Price, Steady Growth in Resident Income -- 3.1.3 Steady and Advancing Economic Operations, Showing a Sign of Active Changes -- 3.2 Preliminary Prospect of the Economic Situation of 2015 -- 4 Analysis of the "Issues of Agriculture, Farmer and Rural Area" Situation in 2014 -- Abstract -- 4.1 Agricultural Production -- 4.1.1 Production of Main Agricultural Products
  • 4.1.2 Agricultural Product Quality -- 4.1.3 Expected Grain Yield from 2015 -- 4.2 Development of the Factor Market -- 4.2.1 Transfer of Arable Lands -- 4.2.2 Rural Labor Mobility -- 4.2.3 Rural Capital Market -- 4.3 Farmers' Income and Welfare -- 4.3.1 Farmers' Income -- 4.3.2 Farmers' Welfare -- 4.4 Relationships Need to be Better -- 4.4.1 The Relationship Between Intensifying Protection and Pioneering -- 4.4.2 The Relationship Between Perfect Theory and Simple Application -- 4.4.3 The Relationship Between Climatic and Political Risk -- 5 Analysis and Policy Suggestion of the Current Industrial Economic Situation -- Abstract -- 5.1 Operation Situation of Industrial Economy in the First Three Quarters of 2014 -- 5.1.1 Industrial Production Growth Slumped -- 5.1.2 Stable Advance in the Industrial Structure Adjustment -- 5.1.3 Fast Growth in the Western Area, Close Growth Rate Between the Eastern and Central Area -- 5.1.4 Decline of the Growth Rate of the Investment in the Manufacturing Industry, the High Energy-Consuming Industry Being Lower Than the Entire Manufacturing Industry -- 5.1.5 Rebound of the Export of Industrial Products and Alleviation of the Downward Pressure -- 5.1.6 Plummet in the Profits of Industrial Enterprises in the Third Quarter -- 5.1.7 Strong Momentum for the Integration of Information Technology and Industrialization, Information Consumption Serving as a New Power for Economic Growth -- 5.2 Transformation in the Growth Dynamic Mechanism that the Industrial Economy Faced at Present -- 5.2.1 Analysis of How the Three Major Demands Pulled the Industrial Growth -- 5.2.2 Analysis of the Contribution of Different Production Factors to Industrial Growth -- 5.2.3 Analysis of the Contribution of Different Industries to the Industrial Economic Growth -- 5.3 Policy Planning for Promoting Stable and Rapid Industrial Economic Growth
  • 5.3.1 Demand Policy -- 5.3.2 Supply Policy -- 5.3.3 Industrial Policy -- References -- 6 Predication of the Industrial Growth Rate in 2014 and Analysis and Report on the Industrial Prospect Index and the Early Warning Index -- Abstract -- 6.1 Analysis of the Situation of the Industrial Economic Operations -- 6.1.1 Obvious Decrease of the Growth Rate in the Industrial Production -- 6.1.2 Continued Slowdown of Industrial Investments and a Proper Growth in the Exports of Industrial Products -- 6.1.3 Constant Improvement in the Profitability Ability of Industrial Enterprises -- 6.1.4 Exacerbation of the Conflict Between the Supply and Demand of Industrial Products -- 6.1.5 Drop in the Industrial Electricity Consumption -- 6.2 Analysis of the Factors Influencing Industrial Operations -- 6.2.1 Major Factors Beneficial to Industrial Growth -- 6.2.2 Major Factors Detrimental to the Industrial Growth -- 6.3 Analysis of the Composite Index of the Industrial Economic Prospects -- 6.3.1 The Industrial Coincident Composite Index -- 6.3.2 Industrial Leading Composite Index -- 6.3.3 The Composite Index of Industrial Lagging Indicators -- 6.3.4 Analysis of the Variation in the Industrial Early Warning Index -- 6.4 Forecast Outcome of the Model and Consensus Forecast -- 6.5 Analysis of the Industrial Increase Trend and Policy Suggestion -- 6.5.1 Predicament for the Iron and Steel Industry and the Difficulty in Boosting Raw Material Industry in the Short Term -- 6.5.2 Continued Drop in the Growth Rate of the Paid-In Investment and Continued Challenges that Faced Industrial Production -- 7 Consequences of the Labor Market Which Surpassed Growth Capability -- Abstract -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Indexes of Macro Economy and Labor Markets -- 7.3 The Connotation and Function of the Natural Rate of Unemployment -- 7.4 Unduly Rise in the Salary of Ordinary Workers
  • 7.5 From Population Dividends to Reform Dividends -- 7.6 Conclusion -- References -- Macro-economic Policy and Macro-economic Regulation and Control -- 8 Bottom of Downturn and Economic Transformation and Upgrading-Analysis and Prospect of Economic Situation from 2014 to 2015 -- Abstract -- 8.1 Increasing Economic Downward Pressure in 2014 -- 8.1.1 Basically Stable Consumer Spending Growth -- 8.1.2 Rebound of Export Growth from Its Low Level -- 8.1.3 Continued Decrease in Investment Growth -- 8.1.4 During the Transition and Adjustment Period of the Real Estate Industry, the Drop in the Growth Rate of the Real Estate Investment was the Major Source of the Economic Downward Pressure -- 8.2 Bottom of the Rebound of the Economic Growth Rate, and the Difficulties of the Transformation and Upgrading in 2015 -- 8.2.1 Stable Market Demand and the Bottom of the Rebound of the Economic Growth Rate -- 8.2.2 More Difficult Transformation and Upgrading Tasks -- 8.3 Combination of Stabilizing Economic Growth and Promoting the Economic Transformation and Upgrading -- 9 The Influence of the Adjustment of Childbearing Policy on the Potential Growth Rate -- Abstract -- 9.1 Predicting and Stimulating the Future with the Potential Growth Rate -- 9.2 Influence of Potential Dividends on Potential Growth Rate -- 9.3 Influence of Improved TFR on China's Potential Growth Rate -- 9.4 Policy Suggestion -- References -- 10 Analytical Prediction of China's Status of Tax Revenue in 2014 the Preliminary Outlook of 2015 -- Abstract -- 10.1 Analysis of the Tax Revenue Status in the First Three Quarters of 2014 -- 10.1.1 Analysis of the Quarterly Accumulated Tax Revenue from January to September in 2014 -- 10.1.2 Analysis of the Monthly Tax Revenue Operation in the First Three Quarters of 2014 -- 10.1.3 Analysis of the Tax Revenue Structure in the First Three Quarters of 2014
  • 10.1.4 Analysis of the Tax Revenue Operation of the Major Provinces in the First Three Quarters of 2014
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