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The Resource Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies : Concepts, Methods, and Applications

Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies : Concepts, Methods, and Applications

Label
Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies : Concepts, Methods, and Applications
Title
Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies
Title remainder
Concepts, Methods, and Applications
Creator
Contributor
Subject
Language
eng
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Cataloging source
MiAaPQ
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
dictionaries
Series statement
The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis Ser.
Series volume
v.41
Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies : Concepts, Methods, and Applications
Label
Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies : Concepts, Methods, and Applications
Link
http://libproxy.rpi.edu/login?url=https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/rpi/detail.action?docID=4643672
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Copyright
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Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Color
multicolored
Content category
text
Content type code
txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
  • Preface -- Contents -- Contributors -- Part I Perspectives on Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies -- 1 Introduction: Agent-Based Modelling as a Tool to Advance Evolutionary Population Theory -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Two Concepts of Population -- 1.3 How Agent-Based Modelling May Bridge the Two Approaches to Population -- 1.3.1 The Macro-Micro-Macro Model and Agent-Based Modelling -- 1.3.2 Empirical Calibration -- 1.3.3 Avoiding Potential Pitfalls -- 1.3.4 Bridging the Gap -- 1.4 Contributions to Agent-Based Modelling in this Book -- 1.4.1 Perspectives on Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies -- 1.4.2 Designing, Analysing, and Reporting Agent-Based Models -- 1.4.3 Modelling Decision Processes -- 1.4.4 Family Formation and Fertility -- 1.4.5 Health, Mortality, and Support in Old Age -- 1.5 Towards Evolutionary Population Theory -- 1.5.1 The Basic Tenets of Evolutionary Theory -- 1.5.2 Agent-Based Modelling and the Evolutionary Approach -- References -- 2 Model-Based Demography: Towards a Research Agenda -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Cumulativity in Demography -- 2.3 From Empirical to Model-Based Demography, and Back: Uncertainty, Complexity and Interactions in Population Systems -- 2.4 Conforming Model-Based Approaches to the Classical Scientific Programme Following the Baconian Inductive Method -- 2.5 Towards a Research Agenda for Demography -- References -- 3 The Role of Social Interactions in Demography: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Three Examples -- 3.2.1 The Wedding Ring: Mate Search and Marriage -- 3.2.1.1 Theory and Assumptions -- 3.2.1.2 Implementation -- 3.2.1.3 Simulation -- 3.2.1.4 Conclusion -- 3.2.2 Transition to Parenthood: Social Interactions and Endogenous Networks -- 3.2.2.1 Theory and Assumptions -- 3.2.2.2 Implementation -- 3.2.2.3 Simulation -- 3.2.2.4 Conclusion
  • 3.2.3 Family Policies and Social Structure -- 3.2.3.1 Theory and Assumptions -- 3.2.3.2 Implementation -- 3.2.3.3 Simulation -- 3.2.3.4 Conclusion -- 3.3 Summary -- References -- Part II Designing, Analysing, and Reporting Agent-Based Models -- 4 Agent-Based Computational Demography and Microsimulation Using JAS-mine -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Convergence Between Agent-Based and Microsimulation Models -- 4.3 The JAS-mine Architecture -- 4.4 The Structure of a JAS-mine Project -- 4.5 The Dynamic Microsimulation Model -- 4.6 The JAS-mine Implementation -- 4.6.1 Parameters -- 4.6.2 The PersonsModel Class -- 4.6.2.1 Objects -- 4.6.2.2 Schedule -- 4.6.2.3 The EventListener Interface -- 4.6.2.4 The Matching Algorithm -- 4.6.2.5 Alignment -- 4.6.3 The Person Class -- 4.6.3.1 Entities -- 4.6.3.2 The IDoubleSource Interface -- 4.6.3.3 Methods -- 4.6.4 The Household Class -- 4.6.5 The PersonsCollector Class -- 4.6.6 The PersonsObserver Class -- 4.6.7 The StartPersons Class -- 4.7 Conclusions -- References -- 5 Simulating Synthetic Life Courses of Individuals and Couples, and Mate Matching -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Simulating Individual and Couple Behavior in Continuous Time -- 5.3 Matching of Individuals -- 5.3.1 Identifying Matching Spouses -- 5.3.1.1 Overlapping Mating Periods -- 5.3.1.2 Compatibility of Individual Characteristics -- 5.3.1.3 Mate Matching -- 5.3.2 Options in Case of an Unsuccessful Search -- 5.4 Implementation and Software -- 5.5 A Hypothetical Application on Smoking Behavior of Couples -- 5.5.1 The Synthetic Population and Parametrization -- 5.5.2 Results -- 5.6 Summary and Conclusion -- Appendices -- A. The ml-DEVS Population Model -- A.1 The Population Macro Model -- A.2 The Individual Micro Model -- A.3 The Individual Couple Model -- B. Sequential Abstract Simulator for ml-DEVS -- C. Transition Rates Used in the Application
  • References -- 6 Using Survey Data for Agent-Based Modeling: Design and Challenges in a Model of Armed Conflict and Population Change -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Survey Data Based ABMs as Experimental Models -- 6.3 Agent-Based Model for Armed Conflict and Population Change -- 6.3.1 Setting -- 6.3.2 Data -- 6.3.3 Overview of the Agent-Based Model -- 6.3.4 Decision-Making and Deterministic Processes -- 6.3.5 Individual Module -- 6.3.6 Household Module -- 6.3.7 Neighborhood Module -- 6.3.8 Interactions and Interdependence -- 6.3.9 Armed Conflict in the ABM -- 6.4 Challenges and Solutions to ABM Design with Survey Data -- 6.4.1 Initializing the Model -- 6.4.2 Parameterizing the Model -- 6.4.3 Adjusting the Model to Create an Experimental Situation -- 6.4.4 Burning-in the Model to Allow for New Selection Processes -- 6.5 Implications of ABM Compared to Regression Based Analysis -- 6.6 Conclusion -- References -- 7 Regression Metamodels for Sensitivity Analysis in Agent-Based Computational Demography -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Regression Metamodels -- 7.2.1 Statistical Approach -- 7.2.2 Validation -- 7.2.3 Experimental Designs -- 7.3 Applied Example -- 7.3.1 Simulation Model -- 7.3.2 Sensitivity Analysis -- 7.3.2.1 Experimental Region -- 7.3.2.2 Tentative Regression Model -- 7.3.2.3 Experimental Design -- 7.3.2.4 Model Validation -- 7.3.2.5 Simulation Results -- 7.4 Discussion and Conclusion -- References -- 8 Design and Analysis of Demographic Simulations -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Design of Computer Experiments -- 8.2.1 Factorial Designs -- 8.2.2 Latin Hyper-Cube Sample Designs -- 8.3 Analysis of Computer Experiments -- 8.4 Gaussian Process Emulators: A Primer -- 8.4.1 General Premises -- 8.4.2 Estimation -- 8.4.3 Predicting New Quantities -- 8.4.4 Uncertainty Analysis -- 8.4.5 Sensitivity Analysis -- 8.5 Worked Example -- 8.5.1 Model Description
  • 8.5.2 Input Design -- 8.5.3 Emulator Fit -- 8.5.4 Validation -- 8.5.5 Predictions, Uncertainty, and Sensitivity Analyses -- 8.6 Extensions -- 8.6.1 Multidimensional Output -- 8.6.2 Probabilistic Calibration -- 8.6.3 History Matching -- 8.7 Discussion -- References -- 9 How to Describe Agent-Based Models in Population Studies? -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Requirements Concerning the Model Description for Demographic ABMs -- 9.3 Model Descriptions in Agent-Based Simulation Models of Population Studies -- 9.4 Example Application of the ODD + D Protocol -- 9.4.1 The ODD + D Protocol -- 9.4.2 Applied Example -- 9.5 Discussion -- References -- Part III Modelling Decision Processes -- 10 The Decision to Emigrate: A Simulation Model Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 The Theory of Planned Behaviour -- 10.3 The Process Theory of Planned Behaviour -- 10.3.1 Process Theories of Decision Making: A Brief Review -- 10.3.2 Process Model of Planned Behaviour -- 10.4 Data -- 10.5 Parameters of the Process Model of Planned Behaviour -- 10.6 Results -- 10.7 Conclusion -- Annex A. Parameters of the Microsimulation Model -- References -- 11 Deciding to Disclose: A Decision Theoretic Agent Model of Pregnancy and Alcohol Misuse -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Disclosure Game Model -- 11.2.1 Modelling Approach -- 11.2.2 Scenario -- 11.2.3 Disclosure Game -- 11.2.4 Social Learning -- 11.2.5 Agent Models -- 11.2.5.1 Lexicographic Heuristic -- 11.2.5.2 Bayesian Payoff -- 11.2.5.3 Bayesian Risk Minimisation -- 11.2.5.4 Descriptive Decision Theory -- 11.3 Method -- 11.3.1 Qualitative Trends -- 11.3.2 Global Sensitivity Analysis -- 11.4 Results -- 11.4.1 Qualitative Trends -- 11.4.2 Social Learning -- 11.4.3 Sensitivity Analysis -- 11.5 Discussion -- 11.6 Conclusion -- Appendix -- A.1 Disclosure Game Model Development -- A.2 Simulation Schedule
  • A.3 Agent Examples -- A.3.1 Lexicographic Heuristic -- A.3.2 Bayesian Payoff -- A.3.3 Bayesian Risk Minimisation -- A.3.4 Descriptive Decision Theory -- A.4 Supplementary Figures -- A.5 Sensitivity Analysis -- A.5.1 Median Moderate Drinker Signalling -- A.5.2 Median Between Groups IQR -- A.5.3 Median Moderate Drinker Signalling IQR -- A.5.4 IQR of Between Groups IQR -- References -- Part IV Family Formation and Fertility -- 12 An Agent-Based Model of Sex Ratio at Birth Distortions -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Modelling Reproductive Behaviours -- 12.2.1 Sex Selection -- 12.2.2 Son Preference (Willingness) -- 12.2.3 Differential Stopping Behaviour (DSB) -- 12.2.4 Access to Technology (Ability) -- 12.2.5 Fertility Decline (Readiness) -- 12.3 Model Description -- 12.3.1 State Variables -- 12.3.2 Procedures -- 12.4 Results -- 12.4.1 The South Korean Sex Ratio Transition -- 12.4.2 The Indian Sex Ratio Transition -- 12.5 Methodological Challenges, Discussion and Future Work -- References -- 13 Exploring the Role of Communication in Shaping Fertility Transition Patterns in Space and Time -- 13.1 Social Status, Communication Links, and the Fertility Transition in Space and Time -- 13.2 Theoretical Considerations -- 13.3 Data and Analytical Strategy -- 13.4 Observed Spatiotemporal Fertility Decline by Social Class 1880-1900 -- 13.5 Conceptual Considerations for the Agent-Based Simulations -- 13.5.1 Three Different Starting Scenarios -- 13.5.2 Three Different Communication Algorithms -- 13.6 Results -- 13.7 Discussion and Conclusion -- Appendix 1: Map of Swedish Counties in 1880 -- References -- 14 Feedback Mechanisms in the Postponement of Fertility in Spain -- 14.1 Introduction -- 14.2 The Dynamics of Fertility Postponement -- 14.2.1 Social Interaction -- 14.2.2 Feedback Loops Between Preferences and Behavior
  • 14.2.3 Equilibrium Between Intentions and Behavior?
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